The month that is soon-to-be-gone now, has just given us a glimpse of what lies in store, an oil price-hike, so not supported by a decent pay-hike.Political constraints have prevented this from happening for some time now, but there always had to be some point of inflexion, forcing the Government take the dreaded decision. A doubling in oil prices would surely have many other inflationary effects: increasing the cost of heating oil and aviation fuel, plastics, chemicals, as well as raising the material costs of all firms (which would likely be passed onto consumers).

But, what is, or rather, are the major reasons behind oil becoming dearer ?
You are the reason. And me. And everybody who buys gas or petroleum products. Supply and demand, that's the name of the game. We demand tons of oil so up goes the price. Works like that in all markets and the markets rule. Always have. Always will. While the supply has remained static, or better put, shrunk there is an ever increasing demand largely from China and India.
However, there are other factors too that have contributed to this meteoric rise in oil prices.Rampant price speculation. People bid for oil in the future, expecting the price to go even higher as demand rises and production decreases. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.The weak dollar. A weaker dollar buys less oil, so prices per barrel rise. Global uncertainties dont help the common man's cause either.
I see a silver lining though. As the Hindustan Times reported, in Australia, hundreds of kilometres of cycleways are being used more than ever before, in a bid to save money on higher fuel costs. In America, the planet's biggest gas guzzler people are already figuring out ways to cut down on fuel consumption. Energy saving products ranging from CFL light bulbs to hybrid cars have started to find there way to the top of the average buyer's list (God knows why Chidambaram doesnt like the new Hybrid Civic?!). Pink Floyd would be happy to see the Reva sing Coming back to life. Where the environmental-friendly 'sham' didnt work, spiralling oil prices surely has.Curbing demand rather than increasing supply seems to be the more logical and viable route to take.
Now, the big BUT, like with every theory you start finding workable. Will we, here in India do anything about it on our part? Are you prepared to shun you 8-cylinder guzzler for the puny Reva? Can our white-collared gentry even think of using a cycle? Will the urban finally take to the bus, or even the BRT for that matter? Will you take that not-so-long walk to the market to get your daily rations?
Or will we just wait like sitting ducks for the unsustainably high prices to significantly dampen demand and thus, lower the prices?
Ponder.
Ciao!
12 Wisecracks!:
a reasonable take on the issue mentioned, but just wanted to point out a couple of inaccuracies in the blog.
1stly the oil production has not shrunk, it has increased but very marginally, only recently it was announced by Saudi Arabia that they will increase their oil production.
2ndly, yes the oil has risen because of speculation, weakening of dollar etc but another reason is the expectancy of inconsistency in supply.. for eg, if nigeria has some unrest or protests regarding a few issues, the market expects the production to reduce and hence the price rises.... will explain in detail wen we meet ;)
gues dere's no need to read da nwspapr nemore! :D
hey nice take on the oil spoil seen! lol
but just wait and watch!
"who says nano is the cheapest car in the world ?"
with increase in demand and production of nano , i guess the oil prices would be at such heights that it will become an inexpensive item in an expensive packaging!
oh sorry , gotta go out , to burn my car oil : my contribution to the world! lol
@ Adi,
while its correct to say that Saudi Arabia announced that they will increase their oil production, its still like just a drop in the ocean. The demand will still outstrip the supply.
The second point is a very valid one, and I wasnt aware of that. Good that you pointed it out!
@ Manisha
I grateful to you for having thought that way. My post was so enlightening? Thanks a lot ;)
@ open heart
Oh yeah, in fact i was wondering if there would be a time when people would just take pride in affording to drive around, let alone those mercs and bmws.
well yeah the nano could go that way..But still its a long way to go!
Pray!
a gud presentation of ur thoughts in dis issue or rather i must say a mix up of your opinions.
firstly, u mentiond abt hike in oil prices and then u said abt pollution free environment.
bcoz of dis rise in oil prices pple r shifting from using private vehicles to public transportation. moreover, some of them hav employd CNG in their cars which is 4 sure environment frndly. but, as u said, dese hike in prices hav sum inflationary effects. so, wat i feel is, u can tak d two parts in two different posts.
i wud lyk to add- if v want to stabalise oil prices and make our environment, v can adopt d method of ratio system in oil(a strategy used in japan). people will buy petrol as given to them on monthly basis by d government. they will start using bicycles n public transport. this will surely help in less pollution n price stabalisation.
Thanks for reading my blog in such detail!
I haven't really touched the topic of having a pollution free environment.
The Reva finally hitting the showrooms is the only instance I mentioned it and that too just to convey that people have started buying it, not because it in a way is more environment friendly, but because it saves them money!
I'm not really aware of the ratio system employed in Japan. It sure does sound logical. But my friend, we do have to look into viabilities of the theory before deeming it to be workable in India. I don't know, but somehow I'm not really sure about the bicycle and public transport part.
it wasn't ratio system but ration system
actually it is more than a drop in the ocean... if you are by far the largest producer of oil in the civilized and uncivilized world, and decide to increase your production by as much as 10-15%
then it makes a difference.
I would like to explain another MAJOR point which some learned people other than you and me might be aware of which has led to the increase in oil prices.
And that is, futures trading.
now i didnt mention it earlier as i am not too well versed with this mechanism, but the thing is, you can trade on oil (in terms of barrels) as a normal commodity but in futures as well.
in case you arent aware how it works, in futures trading (in basic terms) you can actually sell something that you dont actually have and buy the quantity sold later to balance it out.
so lots of funds, institutions and banks etc, traded heavily in this, creating an artificial demand-supply gap which pushed the prices higher and higher.
we shall keep the discussion for alternatives to oil etc later ;)
@ Adi
Hmm. I knew about futures trading and a little about how it worked but not how it affected the oil scene.
Was unaware of the fact that futures trading played a role in the prices going up.
Good to have a guy like you as your best friend. ALWAYS helps! ;)
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