Wars of the future: Part 1

April 05, 2009


So, it is about time I wrote something that makes sense to the usual human. Now, that could mean anything. Varies from person to person. But again, we're NOT getting into the nuances of the ever-so esoteric theory of relativity.

With the kind of turmoil the world is in right now, one wonders if what we've seen until now is really it. Because of the global greed crisis, the writing is firmly on the wall for those who till now thought walls were only what formed edges of alleys on the street. South
Asia is up in flares owing to insanely inane individuals who claim to be God's-own-soldiers. America keeps going on acting like the world's Messiah while a bloody storm continues to brew, courtesy Columbian and Mexican druglords. Africa continues to rue its tumultuos existence. China, for all its burgeoning economic growth doesn't have what is needed to be called a truly progressive nation. Take a trip to Dongtan if you might and you'll notice that China in essence is a poor country.
Astronauts and cosmonauts are fighting over toilet paper and gym equipment at what is farcically called the 'International' Space Centre while people who have their feet-firmly-on-the-ground are dying.

Call me a cynic all you want, but I do foresee a greater peril. History is testimony to the fact that there is always a series of events that lead to a great global event and there is just a tiny pinprick that gives vent to all that build-up(fathom the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, for instance). Terrorism(or narcoterrorism), economic warfare, regional conflicts, religious strife and energy driven crises, any of these, in my opinion could prove to be the roots of a world endangering conflict between nations, if and when there is one.

In context to the present scenario, the focus for now would be on economic wars.

Economic warfare is as old as traditional warfare and, throughout time, economic wars have been waged to secure financial gains. Economic wars are marked by continuity and they are known in times of peace as well as during war. Chief among the economic wars witnessed between Europe and the United States was the disagreement over the Siberia gas pipeline. There has also been an economic war between the United States on one hand and China and Japan on the other. The conflicting interests of the economies of the USA and the USSR played a significant role in the Cold War.

There are various weapons employed in economic warfare, including sanctions, boycotts, customs barriers, monopolies, mergers and marine piracy. Economic defence means confronting any external threat, while economic offensive to destroy and corrupt economies include dumping, the manipulation of drug wars and counterfeit money, and money laundering. With the knowledge that instances of terrorism and political imbalance can cause grave danger to the stock exchange, nations could(read: have been) plotting crises.

Economic wars, like traditional ones, are based on surprise, deceit and espionage in order to acquire information about the enemy, and involve the fast transfer of information. In the 21st century, economic wars are taking on a new form, depending more on advanced technologies and modern communication. With military conflict an unpopular and unrealistic option, espionage will centre more on the economic power of the state and the economic activities of large companies and institutions. Experts anticipate that the future of nations in the coming decade will depend on the intelligence of their spies and the ability of their business people to master the art of espionage in the world of economics and business.
Owing to the widespread of technology, computers are used as an effective tool; destructive programs and viruses are used to destroy the enemy and intelligence bodies manipulate stock markets to destroy the economies of their targets. Internet is the greatest tool for perpetrators of economic destruction. Resources indicate that 95 per cent of large US companies use economic intelligence and that the United States has started to spy on all international communications in an attempt to serve its economic interests and those of its allies. A small but intriguing example is the impending threat that China's treasury offers to America with its tacit warning of playing foul with all the money it has in its coffers.
A fundamental area of concern for economies the world over is resources(or energy) and their utilisation. The coming times might see restriction of trade of basic elements of the industry which could lead to the crippling of entire economies. Disputes over energy have potential great enough to be cause for a convoluted catacylsm.

All in all, an economic war might not seem to be a very romantic concept but it does have a latent capability to cause nations to cross swords.

Just my two cents. A lot more to come. Stay tuned!

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