The Guy in the Glass

Something interesting I came across, first a few years back and again quite recently.

When you get what you want in the struggle for self
And the world makes you king for a day,
Then go to the mirror and look at yourself
And see what the guy has to say.

For it isn't your mother, or your father,
Whose judgement on you must pass,
The fellow whose verdict counts most in your life
Is the guy staring back from the glass.

He's the fellow to please, never mind all the rest
For he's with you clean to the end;
And you've passed your most dangerous and difficult test
If the guy in the glass is your friend.

You may be like Jack Horner and chisel a plum
And think you are a wonderful guy,
But the guy in the glass says you are a bum
If you can't look him straight in the eye.

You may fool the whole world
Down the pathway of years
And get pats on the back as you pass;
But the final reward will be heart aches and tears
If you've cheated the guy in the glass.

Wars of the future: Part 1

So, it is about time I wrote something that makes sense to the usual human. Now, that could mean anything. Varies from person to person. But again, we're NOT getting into the nuances of the ever-so esoteric theory of relativity.

With the kind of turmoil the world is in right now, one wonders if what we've seen until now is really it. Because of the global greed crisis, the writing is firmly on the wall for those who till now thought walls were only what formed edges of alleys on the street. South

Asia is up in flares owing to insanely inane individuals who claim to be God's-own-soldiers. America keeps going on acting like the world's Messiah while a bloody storm continues to brew, courtesy Columbian and Mexican druglords. Africa continues to rue its tumultuos existence. China, for all its burgeoning economic growth doesn't have what is needed to be called a truly progressive nation. Take a trip to Dongtan if you might and you'll notice that China in essence is a poor country.

Astronauts and cosmonauts are fighting over toilet paper and gym equipment at what is farcically called the 'International' Space Centre while people who have their feet-firmly-on-the-ground are dying.

Call me a cynic all you want, but I do foresee a greater peril. History is testimony to the fact that there is always a series of events that lead to a great global event and there is just a tiny pinprick that gives vent to all that build-up(fathom the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, for instance). Terrorism(or narcoterrorism), economic warfare, regional conflicts, religious strife and energy driven crises, any of these, in my opinion could prove to be the roots of a world endangering conflict between nations, if and when there is one.

In context to the present scenario, the focus for now would be on economic wars.

Economic warfare is as old as traditional warfare and, throughout time, economic wars have been waged to secure financial gains. Economic wars are marked by continuity and they are known in times of peace as well as during war. Chief among the economic wars witnessed between Europe and the United States was the disagreement over the Siberia gas pipeline. There has also been an economic war between the United States on one hand and China and Japan on the other. The conflicting interests of the economies of the USA and the USSR played a significant role in the Cold War.

There are various weapons employed in economic warfare, including sanctions, boycotts, customs barriers, monopolies, mergers and marine piracy. Economic defence means confronting any external threat, while economic offensive to destroy and corrupt economies include dumping, the manipulation of drug wars and counterfeit money, and money laundering. With the knowledge that instances of terrorism and political imbalance can cause grave danger to the stock exchange, nations could(read: have been) plotting crises.

Economic wars, like traditional ones, are based on surprise, deceit and espionage in order to acquire information about the enemy, and involve the fast transfer of information. In the 21st century, economic wars are taking on a new form, depending more on advanced technologies and modern communication. With military conflict an unpopular and unrealistic option, espionage will centre more on the economic power of the state and the economic activities of large companies and institutions. Experts anticipate that the future of nations in the coming decade will depend on the intelligence of their spies and the ability of their business people to master the art of espionage in the world of economics and business.

Owing to the widespread of technology, computers are used as an effective tool; destructive programs and viruses are used to destroy the enemy and intelligence bodies manipulate stock markets to destroy the economies of their targets. Internet is the greatest tool for perpetrators of economic destruction. Resources indicate that 95 per cent of large US companies use economic intelligence and that the United States has started to spy on all international communications in an attempt to serve its economic interests and those of its allies. A small but intriguing example is the impending threat that China's treasury offers to America with its tacit warning of playing foul with all the money it has in its coffers.

A fundamental area of concern for economies the world over is resources(or energy) and their utilisation. The coming times might see restriction of trade of basic elements of the industry which could lead to the crippling of entire economies. Disputes over energy have potential great enough to be cause for a convoluted catacylsm.

All in all, an economic war might not seem to be a very romantic concept but it does have a latent capability to cause nations to cross swords.

Just my two cents. A lot more to come. Stay tuned!

Get-up-and-go!

Warning: Continue only if your brain is in its right place. Seriously!
Thug.. thug.. thug.. and the fan comes to a whining halt as does everything else with no electricity.. no fuel.. no power..

Our world is heading towards a severe energy crisis due to our desperate need to consume more energy than can be produced. While we all are aware that the energy we use is not limitless, we continue to take it for granted. Gas, power, oil, even water has limited availability. Nevertheless, we are unprepared for the energy crisis that will inevitably occur. The responsibility is not only the governments, but every man, woman, and child.

Gas and oil prices have already skyrocketed, and as each day dawns, they are getting closer to extinction. There are some misinformed people who believe the energy crisis is a myth. Burying one's head in the sand when the hunter is hot on your heels should be left to the ostrich! The prices have been rapidly escalating over the course of the past five years, due to an increase in demand and the decline of energy resources specifically- crude oil supply problems, rapidly escalating demand for energy, energy pricing policies, oil import quotas, lack of incentives to invest in domestic energy facilities, and depletion of domestic oil and gas reserves to name a few.

In this post however, I wouldn't indulge in the unneeded act of adding a few more strokes to the already dark picture that has been painted so many times by so many. I would prefer to point out what could, no SHOULD be done.

The right energy policy for a nation must aim to satisfy energy needs of current and future generations of all citizens in an affordable manner without adverse impact on the environment. In today's world, mere domestic availability of a particular fuel may not ensure access of modern energy services to all. A nation requires a range of resources in the entire energy supply chains--primary energy, financial capital, material and human capabilities for development and manufacture of relevant technological systems, and logistical infrastructure for delivery--to make available useful energy to its citizens at affordable costs over a long period of time.

An energy policy aimed at long term affordability, clean environment, sustainability and security must be centered on a wide mix of renewable energy options- solar, wind, small-hydel, biomass and others. Wide mix of renewables is necessary to ensure reliability of supplies and avoid possible fallout of dependence on single option like bio-fuels. Therefore, to begin with, India must change its energy strategy towards one that places the highest priority on renewable energy by committing huge resources for up-scaling infrastructure for manufacture and supply of technologies for production of electricity, heat and other end-use energy from solar, wind, biomass and small-hydel resources. Agreed, setup of a coal powered power plant is atleast 20 times cheaper than that of a wind powered one, but with careful planning and skillful management it can be ensured that in the long run, the alternative sources prove to be profitable along with taking care of the crisis part.

State support must be provided to build dispersed infrastructure in rural areas for delivery and maintenance of these systems. Systems based on clean coal and natural gas, given their current domestic availability and low capital cost respectively, can play stopgap role in the transitory phase until delivery infrastructure based on renewables is put in place.

Meanwhile, research on newer sources of energy must carry on. The microbes that churn out inexpensive bio-fuels and bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol should not be left alone to the confines of PhD papers locked up in stacks of dusty files in some corner of the laboratory store rooms.

In addition to changing energy supply mix, drastic end-use and life-style changes that cut down energy use will be necessary. Examples are: new urban planning with homes closer to offices, excess public transport capacities, and promotion of local markets and local materials to avoid long distance transport. But these changes cannot come by market economics alone. Governments need to intervene now to make them economically attractive in the future.

To sign off, energy crisis is a common problem. It needs an even handed solution. Any strategy should be thoroughly taken into account. The energy and food crisis is a threat to domestic and international political and economic system. If the crisis is not resolved, world wide recession is imminent. There is a need to devise short, mid and long-term strategies particularly by developing countries like India to absorb the skyrocketing prices and ensure a bright future.

Hasta la Vista!

Hold on to that last drop of oil!

As you dedicate Wish you were here to oil, for once, I dont envy my parents for being the ones earning all the buck!

The month that is soon-to-be-gone now, has just given us a glimpse of what lies in store, an oil price-hike, so not supported by a decent pay-hike.Political constraints have prevented this from happening for some time now, but there always had to be some point of inflexion, forcing the Government take the dreaded decision. A doubling in oil prices would surely have many other inflationary effects: increasing the cost of heating oil and aviation fuel, plastics, chemicals, as well as raising the material costs of all firms (which would likely be passed onto consumers).

But, what is, or rather, are the major reasons behind oil becoming dearer ?
You are the reason. And me. And everybody who buys gas or petroleum products. Supply and demand, that's the name of the game. We demand tons of oil so up goes the price. Works like that in all markets and the markets rule. Always have. Always will. While the supply has remained static, or better put, shrunk there is an ever increasing demand largely from China and India.

However, there are other factors too that have contributed to this meteoric rise in oil prices.Rampant price speculation. People bid for oil in the future, expecting the price to go even higher as demand rises and production decreases. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.The weak dollar. A weaker dollar buys less oil, so prices per barrel rise. Global uncertainties dont help the common man's cause either.

I see a silver lining though. As the Hindustan Times reported, in Australia, hundreds of kilometres of cycleways are being used more than ever before, in a bid to save money on higher fuel costs. In America, the planet's biggest gas guzzler people are already figuring out ways to cut down on fuel consumption. Energy saving products ranging from CFL light bulbs to hybrid cars have started to find there way to the top of the average buyer's list (God knows why Chidambaram doesnt like the new Hybrid Civic?!). Pink Floyd would be happy to see the Reva sing Coming back to life. Where the environmental-friendly 'sham' didnt work, spiralling oil prices surely has.Curbing demand rather than increasing supply seems to be the more logical and viable route to take.

Now, the big BUT, like with every theory you start finding workable. Will we, here in India do anything about it on our part? Are you prepared to shun you 8-cylinder guzzler for the puny Reva? Can our white-collared gentry even think of using a cycle? Will the urban finally take to the bus, or even the BRT for that matter? Will you take that not-so-long walk to the market to get your daily rations?
Or will we just wait like sitting ducks for the unsustainably high prices to significantly dampen demand and thus, lower the prices?

Ponder.

Ciao!